Sunday MLB matchups feature key pitching returns and offensive challenges
Sunday’s Pitching Matchups
Several pitchers are set to take the mound on Sunday, July 26, with some returning from the injured list. Ranger Suarez, for instance, is making his first start in three weeks. He holds a 3.15 ERA and a 2.66 fielding independent, with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. The main question surrounding Suarez is whether he will pitch deep enough into the game to secure a win. His FIP stands at 2.60, with a 9.56 K/9 rate and a 0.49 HR/9 rate. The Blue Jays, his opponent, rank last in runs scored.
Jacob deGrom is also scheduled to pitch, boasting a 10.94 K/9 rate. His FIP is 3.32, partly due to a higher rate of home runs allowed, though this issue is less pronounced at home where he has a 0.9 HR/9. His opponents, the Mariners, are 29th in runs scored.
Framber Valdez, despite a recent difficult outing, is expected to rebound. His 4.57 ERA would be his highest since 2019, but he maintains a HR/9 rate below 1.00 and a groundball percentage over 50.0. He faces the Royals, who are averaging an MLB-worst 3.7 runs per game and are without Bobby Witt Jr., who is on the injured list. The Royals had a “to be announced” starter as of Saturday night, but Luinder Avila is anticipated to pitch. Avila has a 4.86 ERA this season, though his numbers are influenced by one outing where he allowed eight runs in two-thirds of an inning. Excluding that appearance, his ERA drops to 3.75.
Miles Mikolas, pitching for the Nationals, has a 5.60 ERA overall, allowing 1.9 home runs and recording 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. These figures improve to a 4.67 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings over his last 19 appearances. He faces Kohl Drake of the Diamondbacks, who is making his second career MLB appearance after posting a 6.92 ERA in 17 minor league appearances. The Nationals offense leads the league in scoring with 5.5 runs per game.
In the Cubs vs. Pirates game, Jameson Taillon of the Cubs has a 5.38 ERA and a 6.40 fielding independent, with 2.8 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. The Pirates, who lead the league in home scoring with nearly 5.7 runs per game, will face him. Braxton Ashcraft, the Pirates‘ pitcher, has a 3.95 ERA, but his 3.43 fielding independent suggests better performance, with 10.1 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings.
The Braves will send Reynaldo López to the mound. He has a 3.95 ERA and a 4.58 fielding independent, with 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. The Braves bullpen ranks first in the National League with a 3.27 ERA. They will face Shane Baz of the Orioles, who has a 4.05 ERA with eight strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. The Orioles bullpen ranks 16th with a 4.08 ERA.
Connor Prielipp returns for the Twins after an injured list stint. He has a 5.00 ERA, but his 3.89 fielding independent suggests potential positive regression, having allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings and recording 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that ranks 24th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Jeffrey Springs, the Athletics‘ pitcher, has a 5.96 ERA while allowing 2.4 home runs per nine innings.
Offensive Players to Watch
Jackson Chourio has posted an .890 OPS against left-handed pitchers and an .841 OPS at home. Kyle Freeland, whom Chourio may face, has an 8.28 road ERA, and right-handed batters have hit 56 of the 64 home runs he has allowed since 2024.
Freddie Freeman is currently batting .299. He has an 1.002 OPS on the road. He is set to face Freddy Peralta, who enters with a 5.40 ERA.
Tim Tawa has struggled against left-handed pitchers but is slugging .465 against right-handed pitchers. He has also recorded an .886 OPS over the last three weeks. Miles Mikolas, a potential opponent, has a 4.68 K/9 rate and a 5.60 ERA, with a 1.93 HR/9 rate.
Jake Cronenworth, a left-handed second baseman, had a strong performance on Saturday, reaching base three times and stealing a base. He is matched against Janson Junk, who has a career 4.93 ERA and has allowed left-handed batters to hit .320 against him over the past couple of seasons.
Considered Stacks for Sunday
The Pirates against Jameson Taillon present an interesting stacking opportunity. Taillon has a 4.74 road ERA since 2024, and this year that number is 6.21. He recently returned from injury and conceded four runs in 4.1 innings, including two home runs. The Pirates are considered one of MLB‘s top offenses.
Key players for a Pirates stack include:
- Bryan Reynolds: A switch-hitter with an .800-plus OPS against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers. His OPS in Pittsburgh this year is .968.
- Brandon Lowe: A left-handed second baseman with 21 home runs and 21 doubles through 96 games, bolstered by a .525 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers.
- Ryan O’Hearn: Has an .867 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .950 OPS at home in his first season as a Pirate.
Another stack to consider is the Marlins against Walker Buehler. While June was favorable for Buehler, July has seen him struggle with an 11.88 ERA. His overall performance has been challenging, with a 6.05 road ERA. Left-handed batters have hit .290 against Buehler over the last two years.
Potential players for a Marlins stack include:
- Otto Lopez: Batting .331 with 27 doubles, 20 stolen bases, and six triples. He has an .814 OPS versus right-handed pitchers.
- Liam Hicks: Has gone .279 with 14 home runs and an .884 OPS against right-handed pitchers and an .869 OPS at home.
- Kyle Stowers: Has dealt with injuries but collected 32 extra-base hits this campaign and posted a .980 OPS against right-handed pitchers last season.
The New York Yankees will face Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies. Sánchez has a 2.65 ERA overall with 10.2 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings. He has been more effective at home, posting a 1.03 ERA with two home runs allowed across 78 1/3 innings, compared to a 4.95 ERA with 10 home runs allowed across 54 1/3 innings on the road. Will Warren, the Yankees‘ starting pitcher, has a 4.00 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He has allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings on the road compared to nearly 1.5 per nine innings at home. The Yankees bullpen leads the league in ERA at 3.04, but their lineup is averaging just 3.3 runs per game over its past 29 contests.
The Sunday schedule features 12 games, with the first starting at 1:35 p.m. EDT.
Source: rotowire.com
